The next five days or so could be the most critical in Obama’s presidency.  A light mist of restlessness that appeared about six months ago has gradually grown into an intermittent drizzle of discontent, then a steady rain of displeasure, and now, threatens to become an out and out downpour of dyspeptic opposition. 

If it keeps on raining, levee’s going to break

The President is in a bad spot.  His mismanagement of the economy, ham-fisted handling of the healthcare debate, and trepidation over addressing the Afghanistan situation have siphoned off the substantial support he enjoyed post election.  He must wistfully look back at those heady, anything is possible days of November thru January and wonder what the hell happened.  His clout appeared to be almost limitless, and he wasn’t shy about wielding it.  The power of his personality and perceived strength of the “movement” led supporters to line up behind him in cult-like fashion, and caused opponents set aside long-held principles in order to appear to be one of the enlightened.

But here we are, not even a year later, and there aren’t enough fingers in the Dutch army to plug the leaks in Obama’s reservoir of support.

No, crying won’t help you – praying won’t do you no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move

Pieces of the levee are breaking away.  More and more Democratic congress people are daring to speak out  against various Obama policies.  Their objections have all but killed card check, cap and trade, and various central Liberal elements of healthcare reform, to name a few.  More telling, we’re starting to see cabinet members and advisers break ranks.  It’s clear that Defense Secretary Gates (and the top brass in the military) have embarked on an independent campaign to sway public opinion in favor of a troop surge in Afghanistan.  Marginalized economic advisor, Paul Volcker, has expressed dissatisfaction about aspects of the administration’s financial system regulatory reform package.  How long will it be before Larry Summers, he of the massive ego, starts to distance himself from the disastrous litany of economic policy prescriptions?

All last night I sat on the levee and moaned

As bad as it’s gotten for Team Obama, it has the potential to get much, much worse on Tuesday.  That’s the day Virginia and New Jersey elect new governor’s.  It appears quite likely that the Republicans will regain control of Virginia.  Given that state’s long history of voting for the GOP (until the last couple of elections), it’s not a particularly surprising turn of events.  Nevertheless, it will sting Obama and the Dems, and be a sign that the tide is turning and 2010/2012 could be very problematic. 

New Jersey, though, is different.  It has been a reliably blue state for some time, and the Democrats enjoy an enormous advantage in registered voters.  However, years of wild entitlement expansion have placed New Jerseyites number one on the list of most heavily taxed citizens.  Obviously, they’re not so thrilled about that distinction.  Jon Corzine’s inept stewardship and uninspiring, wet-cardboard-like personality have only exacerbated the problem.  People are leaving New Jersey in droves, further eroding the tax base.  Many in the state appear ready for a course correction.

Mid-term elections are invariably difficult for the party in power.  They tend to be not so much about will incumbents lose seats, but the magnitude of the losses.  That was certainly the case in 2006 when the Republicans were absolutely and unequivocally thrashed.  The beating was a clear referendum on the electorate’s dissatisfaction with Bush 43 and undisciplined Republican congress people.  If the Democrats lose New Jersey, it may be a precursor to a comparable spanking.

The ramifications will be felt almost immediately.  Democrats, although they will say otherwise, will recognize such a defeat as a rebuke of the President and/or his policies, but more importantly (to them), they’ll see it as a direct threat to their personal survival.  And, is there any species with a stronger survival instinct than a politician?  Forget party unity; every man for himself.  It will be Vichy France battling, albeit reluctantly, the Allied powers.

Despite all of Obama’s and Corzine’s problems, the Republicans are fighting an uphill battle in New Jersey.  The polls are tight, but it is still somewhat difficult to see the GOP overcoming all the obstacles (e.g. multiple appearances by Obama and Bill Clinton; huge spending advantage and negative campaigning by Corzine; and the large delta in registered voters).  But, if they do, look out below.  It could ostensibly render Obama a first term lame duck.  Starting in 2012, he may be able to work on that Olympic bid full time.

Going – I’m going to Chicago
Going to Chicago
Sorry but I can’t take you
Going down – I’m going down now
Going down – I’m going down now
I’m going down –

(Credit:  When The Levee Breaks by Led Zeppelin)