Achtung Baby!
As if President Obama needed any more ominous news regarding his political future, Germany just affirmed what has been a stark and sweeping move on the continent toward center-right government. The reelection of Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats, along with new governing coalition partner, the Free Democrats (somewhat akin to our Libertarians), is another unmistakable rebuke of Social Democrats.
The election comes on the heels of a historic and devastating early June blow to European liberalism when voters chose center-right parliaments in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.
Tired of 30+ years of burgeoning government, under-performing economies, fewer jobs, a declining population base, and greatly diminished worldwide competitiveness, European voters put down their collective foot.. Better late than never, I guess.
Now, Merkel, liberated from the Grand Coalition (governing partnership with the Social Democrats), is theoretically more able to pursue an agenda of lower taxes, less government control, and a reinvigoration of private markets and entrepreneurship. The task, given the considerable baggage of transfer programs run amok and an entrenched entitlement culture, will not be easy.
How ironic, though. Just as Merkel and other European leaders are walking back from the precipice of socialism, we are speeding blindly toward its cliffs.
At this point, there is little doubt that U.S. Democrat incumbents are going to take a pounding in 2010; it's really just a matter of degree. The American electorate is showing the same disdain for government expansionism that has recently and finally been exhibited by our European brethren.
The real drama, however, is how this will affect the 2012 calculus. Conventional wisdom says that Obama will be forced to move to the center in order to tourniquet the blood letting of critical Independent voters. Such a strategy did get Bill Clinton elected to a second term.
The landscape may be different this time, though. If a significant portion of the Republican base continues, self-destructively I might add, to be infatuated with Sarah Palin, Obama may have the cover necessary to stay on the hard left. It would not be irrational for the Dems to want to setup a turnout battle, particularly given the machine they put in place in 2008. Should Palin win the nomination, or even simply force other Republican candidates to lean harder to the right in a primary battle, Independents might become sufficiently disenchanted with both parties that their vote gets spit relatively evenly and/or they show up in lesser numbers.
Odds, nonetheless, are that Obama will move to the center—either during the run up to the mid-term elections, or shortly thereafter, but the specter/influence of a Palin, or even Huckabee, may present Obama an option not available to Clinton in '96 when he ran against a pre-ordained and considerably more moderate Bob Dole.
So, will the situation in Germany impact Obama's strategy? What must he be thinking when he sees virtually all of Europe turn to the center-right? Will there be lessons in Merkel's experience?
If he does look to Germany for a clue, perhaps he'd be well-served to consider the advice of the smartest German of all, Albert Einstein:
"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow."
He's never needed more hope than right now.
The election comes on the heels of a historic and devastating early June blow to European liberalism when voters chose center-right parliaments in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.
Tired of 30+ years of burgeoning government, under-performing economies, fewer jobs, a declining population base, and greatly diminished worldwide competitiveness, European voters put down their collective foot.. Better late than never, I guess.
Now, Merkel, liberated from the Grand Coalition (governing partnership with the Social Democrats), is theoretically more able to pursue an agenda of lower taxes, less government control, and a reinvigoration of private markets and entrepreneurship. The task, given the considerable baggage of transfer programs run amok and an entrenched entitlement culture, will not be easy.
How ironic, though. Just as Merkel and other European leaders are walking back from the precipice of socialism, we are speeding blindly toward its cliffs.
At this point, there is little doubt that U.S. Democrat incumbents are going to take a pounding in 2010; it's really just a matter of degree. The American electorate is showing the same disdain for government expansionism that has recently and finally been exhibited by our European brethren.
The real drama, however, is how this will affect the 2012 calculus. Conventional wisdom says that Obama will be forced to move to the center in order to tourniquet the blood letting of critical Independent voters. Such a strategy did get Bill Clinton elected to a second term.
The landscape may be different this time, though. If a significant portion of the Republican base continues, self-destructively I might add, to be infatuated with Sarah Palin, Obama may have the cover necessary to stay on the hard left. It would not be irrational for the Dems to want to setup a turnout battle, particularly given the machine they put in place in 2008. Should Palin win the nomination, or even simply force other Republican candidates to lean harder to the right in a primary battle, Independents might become sufficiently disenchanted with both parties that their vote gets spit relatively evenly and/or they show up in lesser numbers.
Odds, nonetheless, are that Obama will move to the center—either during the run up to the mid-term elections, or shortly thereafter, but the specter/influence of a Palin, or even Huckabee, may present Obama an option not available to Clinton in '96 when he ran against a pre-ordained and considerably more moderate Bob Dole.
So, will the situation in Germany impact Obama's strategy? What must he be thinking when he sees virtually all of Europe turn to the center-right? Will there be lessons in Merkel's experience?
If he does look to Germany for a clue, perhaps he'd be well-served to consider the advice of the smartest German of all, Albert Einstein:
"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow."
He's never needed more hope than right now.
IT'S TOO LATE FOR EUROPE UNLESS THERE IS AN EXTREME AND PROLONGED CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT.
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It is not too late for Europe - Think Thatcher! It goes in cycles- and yes they have been in a downward socialism spiral. Time to crank it back up.
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You're exactly right. Some see (or hope for) signs of Thatcherism from Merkel. I have not yet observed anywhere near that level of commitment to conservatism from her, but perhaps she'll be able to move more in that direction now that she's not as tied down by the Social Democrats.
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