Public Opinion: The Ultimate Free Market
Although the free market has absorbed numerous body blows over the past six months, the public opinion free market has remained remarkably resilient. The same supply and demand fundamentals that drive our capitalist system (well, until recently anyway), also apply to the shaping of public attitudes.
Despite being consistently misled by politicians and absolutely ignorant on most issues, it's astonishing how reliably and predictably the general public senses unhealthy imbalances on either side of the political spectrum, and moves instinctively to correct inequities.
Moreover, this process always plays out notwithstanding the pontification of self-appointed experts who spin tales of tectonic shifts in sentiment—the kind that are supposed to permanently or near-permanently alter the landscape.
Remember the purported death of the GOP in 1992, only to be followed in 1994 by a historic rejection of Democrats and embrace of Republicanism? In conjunction with that change came pronouncements of an electoral college lock that some claimed might take generations to crack. It wasn't long after, however, that the Republicans lost control of the House and Senate, and eventually the presidency. So much for the stranglehold.
Today, it's not difficult to see that the seeds of a reversion back to the mean are being sown. As always, history is quite illustrative.
After Nixon's contemptible corruption, the public unsurprisingly went for the squeaky clean Jimmy Carter.
When Carter proved to be uncharismatic, a tedious micro-manager, and an ineffectual leader, the country moved in the direction of a magnetic, eloquent, and big-picture-oriented Ronald Reagan.
As soon as the populace tired of George W. Bush's clumsy oration, divisiveness, and proclivity for projecting American power around the globe, it reached for Barack Obama, a smooth talking conciliator.
Now, the focus is on President Obama. Following an initial and unprecedented insinuation of Big Government policies by his administration and Congress, the formerly "can do no wrong" invincible one is seeing the effects of the public's growing disenchantment and belief that he and his cohorts are overplaying their hand.
The evidence is all around.
Obama's poll numbers, which have been eroding steadily over the past several weeks, as they typically do for new presidents, have recently fallen off a cliff in certain key areas as the public begins to sense that something is amiss with the huge lurch to the Left.
What must undoubtedly be most troubling for the Obamaites is the significant loss of support from Independents—dropping 6 points last week alone in a national Gallup poll. In Ohio, a critical battleground state, the numbers are more disconcerting—a full 48% of Independent voters disapprove of Obama's job performance. In Virginia, the figure is 52%.
Poll numbers aren't the only referendum on Obama's policies and performance. Various seminal races around the country also reflect the current mood of the populace. Republican candidates are well in front among all voters, and dramatically ahead among Independents, in the NJ and VA Governor's races. New Jersey, of course, has been reliably Democrat for a long time, while Virginia has been a recent addition to the Democrat column. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's efforts to get reelected in Nevada may also prove quite telling for Obama and the Democrats if current poll numbers are an indication.
Interestingly, of late, all of this is having a material impact on how the legislative sausage is being put together. Democrats in Congress are reading the tea leaves and beginning to recognize that public opinion is a legitimate counterweight to their majority voting position—a much needed, and until recently, missing check and balance.
And, as we know, the congressional Hippocratic Oath is, "Above all, do no harm...to my re-election prospects." As such, we're seeing an awful lot of trial balloons floated to test what might and might not be palatable to the general public.
So, it remains to be seen how much of the Democrat's ambitious agenda Obama and friends will attempt to pass—knowing full well that there will be a reckoning in 2010 and 2012 if voters deem it to be over the line, or if it doesn't deliver the advertised results.
The pendulum will swing back; it always does. The question this time, though, is, will it first swing so far to the Left that it knocks out a structural support—making our economy unstable for decades?
When it does swing back, we unfortunately have a spotty track record of being able to put entitlement toothpaste back in the tube, should it be necessary to do so. Other than welfare reform during the Clinton/Republican Congress era, I don't know that it's been done.
Jefferson said, "Government is best which governs least."
It's pretty clear we will all be weighing in on that theory over the next 3+ years.
Despite being consistently misled by politicians and absolutely ignorant on most issues, it's astonishing how reliably and predictably the general public senses unhealthy imbalances on either side of the political spectrum, and moves instinctively to correct inequities.
Moreover, this process always plays out notwithstanding the pontification of self-appointed experts who spin tales of tectonic shifts in sentiment—the kind that are supposed to permanently or near-permanently alter the landscape.
Remember the purported death of the GOP in 1992, only to be followed in 1994 by a historic rejection of Democrats and embrace of Republicanism? In conjunction with that change came pronouncements of an electoral college lock that some claimed might take generations to crack. It wasn't long after, however, that the Republicans lost control of the House and Senate, and eventually the presidency. So much for the stranglehold.
Today, it's not difficult to see that the seeds of a reversion back to the mean are being sown. As always, history is quite illustrative.
After Nixon's contemptible corruption, the public unsurprisingly went for the squeaky clean Jimmy Carter.
When Carter proved to be uncharismatic, a tedious micro-manager, and an ineffectual leader, the country moved in the direction of a magnetic, eloquent, and big-picture-oriented Ronald Reagan.
As soon as the populace tired of George W. Bush's clumsy oration, divisiveness, and proclivity for projecting American power around the globe, it reached for Barack Obama, a smooth talking conciliator.
Now, the focus is on President Obama. Following an initial and unprecedented insinuation of Big Government policies by his administration and Congress, the formerly "can do no wrong" invincible one is seeing the effects of the public's growing disenchantment and belief that he and his cohorts are overplaying their hand.
The evidence is all around.
Obama's poll numbers, which have been eroding steadily over the past several weeks, as they typically do for new presidents, have recently fallen off a cliff in certain key areas as the public begins to sense that something is amiss with the huge lurch to the Left.
What must undoubtedly be most troubling for the Obamaites is the significant loss of support from Independents—dropping 6 points last week alone in a national Gallup poll. In Ohio, a critical battleground state, the numbers are more disconcerting—a full 48% of Independent voters disapprove of Obama's job performance. In Virginia, the figure is 52%.
Poll numbers aren't the only referendum on Obama's policies and performance. Various seminal races around the country also reflect the current mood of the populace. Republican candidates are well in front among all voters, and dramatically ahead among Independents, in the NJ and VA Governor's races. New Jersey, of course, has been reliably Democrat for a long time, while Virginia has been a recent addition to the Democrat column. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's efforts to get reelected in Nevada may also prove quite telling for Obama and the Democrats if current poll numbers are an indication.
Interestingly, of late, all of this is having a material impact on how the legislative sausage is being put together. Democrats in Congress are reading the tea leaves and beginning to recognize that public opinion is a legitimate counterweight to their majority voting position—a much needed, and until recently, missing check and balance.
And, as we know, the congressional Hippocratic Oath is, "Above all, do no harm...to my re-election prospects." As such, we're seeing an awful lot of trial balloons floated to test what might and might not be palatable to the general public.
So, it remains to be seen how much of the Democrat's ambitious agenda Obama and friends will attempt to pass—knowing full well that there will be a reckoning in 2010 and 2012 if voters deem it to be over the line, or if it doesn't deliver the advertised results.
The pendulum will swing back; it always does. The question this time, though, is, will it first swing so far to the Left that it knocks out a structural support—making our economy unstable for decades?
When it does swing back, we unfortunately have a spotty track record of being able to put entitlement toothpaste back in the tube, should it be necessary to do so. Other than welfare reform during the Clinton/Republican Congress era, I don't know that it's been done.
Jefferson said, "Government is best which governs least."
It's pretty clear we will all be weighing in on that theory over the next 3+ years.
It is still too early in the game to predict the winner, or in this case, maybe the loser in three more years. While you make a very good point that the public will move to correct inequities, I believe that the public also has very short memories. All could be forgiven and forgotten in a much shorter period than three years, should the economy heal itself despite President Obama's ineffective policies. Only time will tell.
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I agree with that evaluation. It would, however, be very difficult to find objective economic analysis that points to us being on strong footing from a deficit and growth standpoint in 2010 or 2012. Obama's fate may rest on the heretofore remarkable resiliency of our economic system. Given the recent interventions, though, the system on which we've historically relied may not be available to save Obama's and our bacon.
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