Virtually ignored among the Michael Jackson media frenzy is one of the most positive Middle East developments since the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.

Yesterday, the leading group of Iranian clerics defied Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by calling the disputed presidential election and resulting government illegitimate.  This represents the most significant challenge to the authority of the supreme leader in the Islamic Republic's 30 year history.

Therein lies the conundrum for American foreign policy.  Do we bet on the reform movement, or is it too risky to wait for that to fully take root?  Should we instead address, sooner rather than later, the nuclear ambitions, support for terror, and overall destabilizing effect of Iran's radical leadership?

There are compelling arguments on both sides.

Reasons to wait include:  Iran is, and has been, a relatively open society.  For the most part, its people can come and go as they please.  They have near unfettered (discounting the recent crackdown) access to the Internet and other outside influences.  The Iranians are among the most well-educated people in the world with a literacy rate of 77%.  The populace is also remarkably young.  More than two-thirds are under the age of thirty.  And, they have one of the more enlightened views in the region of females.  Women comprise greater than half of the university students, and they hold pivotal positions throughout society.  Finally, if the reformers win out, and the Islamic regime collapses under its own weight, the democratic reverberations could be felt across the region.

Of course, those more hawkish can legitimately argue that although the general population may be moderating more and more over time, radicals still call the shots, and their intentions toward Western, Iraqi, and Israeli interests are quite evil.  Can we chance a nuclear weapon in their hands or the hands of some rogue nation/entity to whom it may be passed?  Not an easy call.

Ideally, we (and/or Israel) should wait as long as absolutely possible.  If the U.S. or Israel feels the need to attack, we/they may blunt the immediate threat, but no doubt stoke nationalist pride in the process, and likely delay illusive Middle East peace by decades.

The race for control between Iranian extremists and reformers is fraught with peril.  It's critical that the U.S. and Israel play its hand wisely, or any potential near-term victory may prove to be Pyrrhic at best. 

Let's hope that President Obama's naturally cautious approach plays to our advantage in this instance.